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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction

The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, certainly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new initiatives based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.