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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."